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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-03-13T17:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-13T17:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37816/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 composed of a bright narrow bulk and a fainter shock extending to the north and west relative to the bulk. The source is a minor eruption from near Active Region 4020 (N20E13) with northern deflection as seen in SDO AIA 193, 171, 304 as early as 2025-03-13T16:49Z; darkening in SDO AIA 193, brightening in SDO AIA 304 and the appearance of a breaking loop in SDO AIA 171. Attached WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulation by M2M submitted to CME Scoreboard at 2025-03-14T15:26Z was executed in support of SEP models and should not be used for CME trajectory analysis, potentially representing an overestimate of potential impacts relative to observations. Based on the simulation output, there is low confidence the CME may arrive at Earth very weakly around 2025-03-16T07:48Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-16T07:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/37822/1
Model Inputs:
2025-03-13T17:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-4.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=618.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2025-03-13T22:46Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-03-16T07:48Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =11.7 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-14T15:56Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-14T20:56Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250313_224600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 40.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-03-14T15:26Z

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